Monster Vote?

For those that are so inclined, this is the last week to cast an early vote for the November 8^th election. In the past, I have always just waited until Election Day to exercise my right, privilege and, I believe, obligation to vote but this may be the year that I join about half of Jefferson County voters and cast an early decision. Historically, Jefferson County is fairly evenly split between early and Election Day voters. If that trend hold out this year, we will have a monster vote.

Already, 9,307 Jefferson Countians have cast their ballots and there is still three days of early voting left. This election cycle has seen only one day that the vote tally did not break the 600 count and that was on the 22^nd of October when 562 people cast their ballot. The highest early voting day thus far for this election cycle was opening day, October 19^th, with a vote count of 1,386. Why is the vote count significant? Obviously Presidential Election Cycles enjoy the most voter traffic and as recently as eight years ago the millennials came out in force to support then democrat candidate Obama. The historic 2008 election bought out 18,532 voters in Jefferson County. That was a little more than one thousand votes more than came out to vote in the 2012 Presidential Election Cycle. If Jefferson County holds true to their general split of early and voting day totals being nearly 50/50, Jefferson County numbers indicate that we have already voted more than half of the grand total of the 2008 election and there are still three days left to cast votes.

Will the numbers play out as they have in the past election cycles? This has been an election year full of surprises, where the old norm is a thing of the past. Who knows what the new norm will be, come November 9, 2016. What I do know is this-in the previous two Presidential Election Cycles of 2008 and 2012, Jefferson County has had an undeniable consistent Republican vote. In 2008 McCain garnered 13,038 votes and in 2012 Romney received 13,092. Votes for Democrat candidates were the majority of the difference in the last two voting totals, as Republican support was steady during those two cycles.

So, what does that mean for this year? It is undeniable that the two major party candidates for President elicit huge responses in the voting public. In Jefferson County, where the County lines are red, it is likely a safe assumption that Trump will carry the vote. The question is whether the increase in voter turnout will in any way smudge the red line. And then there is the other question. If voter turnout is high in Jefferson County, how does that translate nationally?

Of course, it could be as simple as convenience. Maybe there are a couple of thousand local voters who are not looking forward to standing in what is purported to be a long line on Election Day. Maybe the total numbers will not change as much as the split of early and Election Day will change? Or, perhaps as nasty as this election has been, it has served to propel those that do not regularly vote, may not ever have voted, to go to the polls. If that is the case then perhaps these past painful months have been worth it. My hope is that the numbers don’t lie and that people have become aware of the value of the vote.