Consumer Price Index For April 2020

CPI for all items falls 0.8% in April; gasoline and other declines outweigh food increases

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.8 percent in
April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest monthly decline since December
2008, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months,
the all items index increased 0.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

A 20.6-percent decline in the gasoline index was the largest contributor to the
monthly decrease in the seasonally adjusted all items index, but the indexes for
apparel, motor vehicle insurance, airline fares, and lodging away from home all
fell sharply as well. In contrast, food indexes rose in April, with the index for
food at home posting its largest monthly increase since February 1974. The energy
index declined mostly due to the decrease in the gasoline index, though some
energy component indexes rose.  

The index for all items less food and energy fell 0.4 percent in April, the
largest monthly decline in the history of the series, which dates to 1957. Along
with the indexes mentioned above, the indexes for used cars and trucks and
recreation also declined. The indexes for rent, owners’ equivalent rent, medical
care, and household furnishings and operations all increased in April. 
 
The all items index increased 0.3 percent for the 12 months ending April, the
smallest 12-month increase since October 2015. The index for all items less food
and energy increased 1.4 percent over the last 12 months, its smallest increase
since April 2011. The energy index fell 17.7 percent over the last year. In
contrast, the food index rose 3.5 percent over the last 12 months, its largest
12-month increase since February 2012. 

Food The food index increased 1.5 percent in April following a 0.3-percent increase in March. The food at home index increased sharply in April, rising 2.6 percent. The increase was broad-based, with all six major grocery store food groups increasing at least 1.5 percent over the month.  The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased the most, rising 4.3 percent as the index for eggs increased 16.1 percent. The index for cereals and bakery products rose 2.9 percent in April, its largest monthly increase ever. The index for nonalcoholic beverages also rose 2.9 percent in April, its fourth consecutive increase. The indexes for dairy and related products and for fruits and vegetables both increased 1.5 percent in April.   The index for food away from home rose 0.1 percent in April after rising 0.2 percent in March. The index for limited service meals rose 0.7 percent, while the index for full service meals declined 0.3 percent.  The food at home index increased 4.1 percent over the last 12 months. All six major grocery store food group indexes rose over the last year, with increases ranging from 0.4 percent (fruits and vegetables) to 6.8 percent (meats, poultry, fish, and eggs). The index for dairy and related products rose 5.2 percent, and the index for nonalcoholic beverages increased 5.0 percent. The index for food away from home rose 2.8 percent over the last year. The index for limited service meals increased 3.2 percent and the index for full service meals rose 2.4 percent over the last 12 months. Energy The energy index declined 10.1 percent in April, its largest monthly decrease since November 2008. The gasoline index continued to decline, falling 20.6 percent in April; it has declined 32.5 percent since December 2019. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell 16.5 percent in April.) The fuel oil index also declined in April, falling 15.6 percent. In contrast, the index for electricity increased slightly in April, rising 0.1 percent, and the index for natural gas rose 0.2 percent.  The energy index fell 17.7 percent over the past 12 months, its largest 12-month decline since the period ending September 2015. The gasoline index decreased 32.0 percent, while the fuel oil index fell 33.2 percent. The index for natural gas declined 1.9 percent, while the index for electricity increased slightly over the last 12 months, rising 0.2 percent.    All items less food and energy The index for all items less food and energy decreased 0.4 percent in April. Large declines in several indexes contributed to the record decrease. The apparel index fell 4.7 percent in April. The index for motor vehicle insurance declined 7.2 percent, and the index for airline fares decreased 15.2 percent. Each of these decreases was the largest monthly decline in the history of the respective series. The shelter index was unchanged in April, as it was in March. The indexes for rent and for owners’ equivalent rent both increased 0.2 percent in April following 0.3-percent increases in March. However, these increases were offset by a sharp decline in the index for lodging away from home, which fell 7.1 percent in April following a 6.8-percent decline in March. Also falling in April were the indexes for used cars and trucks, which declined 0.4 percent, and for recreation, which declined 0.2 percent. The new vehicles index was unchanged in April after declining in March. The medical care index rose 0.4 percent in April, the same increase as in March. The prescription drugs index rose 0.6 percent and the hospital services index increased 0.5 percent, while the physicians’ services index declined 0.1 percent. The index for household furnishings and operations increased 0.5 percent in April. Also rising in April were the indexes for education, for alcoholic beverages, and for communication.   The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.4 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter index rose 2.6 percent over the 12-month span, with the rent index increasing 3.5 percent, the owners’ equivalent rent index rising 3.1 percent, and the lodging away from home index falling 14.0 percent. The medical care index rose 4.8 percent over the last year. Indexes that declined over the past 12 months include airline fares (-24.3 percent), apparel (-5.7 percent), new vehicles (-0.6 percent), and used cars and trucks (-0.7 percent). Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 256.389 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index decreased 0.7 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.   The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 0.1 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 249.515 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index decreased 0.7 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.   The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) was unchanged over the last 12 months. For the month, the index decreased 0.8 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.  _______________ The Consumer Price Index for May 2020 is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, June 10, 2020 at 8:30 a.m. (EDT). --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Impact on April 2020 Consumer Price Index Data Data collection by personal visit for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) program has been suspended since March 16, 2020. When possible, data normally collected by personal visit were collected either online or by phone. Additionally, data collection in April was affected by the temporary closing or limited operations of certain types of establishments. These factors resulted in an increase in the number of prices considered temporarily unavailable and imputed. While the CPI program attempted to collect as much data as possible, many indexes are based on smaller amounts of collected prices than usual, and a small number of indexes that are normally published were not published this month. Additional information is available at  www.bls.gov/bls/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-on-bls-price-indexes.htm#CPI.  --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Technical Note Brief Explanation of the CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers  for goods and services. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two  population groups: all urban consumers and urban wage earners and clerical  workers. The all urban consumer group represents about 93 percent of the total  U.S. population. It is based on the expenditures of almost all residents of  urban or metropolitan areas, including professionals, the self-employed, the poor,  the unemployed, and retired people, as well as urban wage earners and clerical  workers. Not included in the CPI are the spending patterns of people living in  rural nonmetropolitan areas, farming families, people in the Armed Forces, and  those in institutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals. Consumer inflation  for all urban consumers is measured by two indexes, namely, the Consumer Price  Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained Consumer Price Index for  All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U).  The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is  based on the expenditures of households included in the CPI-U definition that  meet two requirements: more than one-half of the household's income must come  from clerical or wage occupations, and at least one of the household's earners  must have been employed for at least 37 weeks during the previous 12 months. The  CPI-W population represents about 29 percent of the total U.S. population and is  a subset of the CPI-U population. The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation,  doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and other goods and services that people  buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected each month in 75 urban areas  across the country from about 6,000 housing units and approximately 22,000 retail  establishments (department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and  other types of stores and service establishments). All taxes directly associated  with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of fuels and  a few other items are obtained every month in all 75 locations. Prices of most  other commodities and services are collected every month in the three largest  geographic areas and every other month in other areas. Prices of most goods and  services are obtained by personal visits or telephone calls by the Bureau’s  trained representatives. In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location  are aggregated using weights, which represent their importance in the spending  of the appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a  U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and CPI-W, separate indexes are also published  by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions  and population-size classes, and for 23 selected local areas. Area indexes do not  measure differences in the level of prices among cities; they only measure the  average change in prices for each area since the base period. For the C-CPI-U,  data are issued only at the national level. The CPI-U and CPI-W are considered  final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject to  three subsequent quarterly revisions.  The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For most of the  CPI-U and the CPI-W, the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference base  for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100.  An increase of 7 percent from the  reference base, for example, is shown as 107.000. Alternatively, that relationship  can also be expressed as the price of a base period market basket of goods and  services rising from $100 to $107.  Sampling Error in the CPI The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it is  based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete universe of all prices.  BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1-month, 2-month, 6-month, and 12- month percent change standard errors annually for the CPI-U. These standard error  estimates can be used to construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing.  For example, the estimated standard error of the 1-month percent change is 0.03  percent for the U.S. all items CPI. This means that if we repeatedly sample from  the universe of all retail prices using the same methodology, and estimate a  percentage change for each sample, then 95 percent of these estimates will be  within 0.06 percent of the 1-month percentage change based on all retail prices.  For example, for a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the all items CPI-U, we are  95 percent confident that the actual percent change based on all retail prices  would fall between 0.14 and 0.26 percent. For the latest data, including  information on how to use the estimates of standard error, see  https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/variance-estimates/home.htm.  

Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data. 
Seasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by the X-13ARIMA-
SEATS seasonal adjustment method. These factors are updated each February, and the new 
factors are used to revise the previous 5 years of seasonally adjusted data. The factors 
are available at www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/seasonal-adjustment/seasonal-factors-2020.pdf. 
For more information on data revision scheduling, please see the Factsheet on Seasonal 
Adjustment at www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/questions-and-answers.htm and the 
Timeline of Seasonal Adjustment Methodological Changes at 
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/timeline-seasonal-adjustment-methodology-changes.htm. 

For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are 
usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the 
same time and in about the same magnitude every year—such as price movements resulting 
from weather events, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales. This 
allows data users to focus on changes that are not typical for the time of year. The 
unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they 
actually pay. Unadjusted data are also used extensively for escalation purposes. Many 
collective bargaining contract agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation 
changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal variation. BLS advises 
against the use of seasonally adjusted data in escalation agreements because seasonally 
adjusted series are revised annually.

Intervention Analysis

The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses intervention analysis seasonal adjustment for some 
CPI series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying seasonal 
pattern of price change. Intervention analysis seasonal adjustment is a process by which 
the distortions caused by such unusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior 
to calculation of seasonal factors. The resulting seasonal factors, which more accurately 
represent the seasonal pattern, are then applied to the unadjusted data. 

For example, this procedure was used for the motor fuel series to offset the effects of the 
2009 return to normal pricing after the worldwide economic downturn in 2008. Retaining this 
outlier data during seasonal factor calculation would distort the computation of the seasonal 
portion of the time series data for motor fuel, so it was estimated and removed from the data 
prior to seasonal adjustment. Following that, seasonal factors were calculated based on this 
“prior adjusted” data. These seasonal factors represent a clearer picture of the seasonal 
pattern in the data. The last step is for motor fuel seasonal factors to be applied to the 
unadjusted data.

For the seasonal factors introduced for January 2020, BLS adjusted 53 series using intervention 
analysis seasonal adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels, 
electricity, and vehicles. 

Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes

Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average all items index levels, are subject 
to revision for up to 5 years after their original release. Every year, economists in the CPI 
calculate new seasonal factors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last 5 
years of data. Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last 5 years of data are considered to 
be final and not subject to revision. For January 2020, revised seasonal factors and seasonally 
adjusted indexes for 2015 to 2019 were calculated and published. For series which are directly 
adjusted using the Census X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment software, the seasonal factors 
for 2019 will be applied to data for 2020 to produce the seasonally adjusted 2020 indexes. 
Series which are indirectly seasonally adjusted by summing seasonally adjusted component series 
have seasonal factors which are derived and are therefore not available in advance. 

Determining Seasonal Status

Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical 
criteria. Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its 
status from "not seasonally adjusted" to "seasonally adjusted", or vice versa. If any of the 
81 components of the U.S. city average all items index change their seasonal adjustment status 
from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used 
in the aggregation of the dependent series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted 
indexes before that period will not be changed. Twenty-eight of the 81 components of the U.S. 
city average all items index are not seasonally adjusted for 2020.